Método de incertidumbre paramétrica en la evaluación de un modelo hidrológico agregado
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-28132012000200004Palabras clave:
HSPF, incertidumbre paramétrica, simulación Monte Carlo, método de estimación puntal de Harr, límites de incertidumbre de simulaciones de caudalesResumen
Los modeladores de recursos hídricos enfrentan el desafío de trabajar con diferentes tipos de incertidumbre debido a la falta de un completo conocimiento de los sistemas naturales, procesos de modelación, aproximaciones numéricas (ecuaciones, parámetros, estructuras, soluciones), y datos de terreno tomados para desarrollar y evaluar modelos. La propagación de la incertidumbre paramétrica en los resultados de las simulaciones es un tópico relevante en la hidrología ambiental. Los análisis de incertidumbre mejoran la evaluación en el modelamiento hidrológico. Existe una necesidad en la hidrología moderna de desarrollar y evaluar métodos de análisis de incertidumbre que apoyen la evaluación de los modelos hidrológicos. En esta investigación se evaluó la propagación de la incertidumbre de los parámetros de un modelo en los resultados del flujo simulado. Un programa de simulación hidrológico HSPF patrocinado por la Agencia Ambiental de los EE.UU., fue evaluado utilizando datos hidroambientales de la cuenca de la quebrada Luxapallila localizada en los estados de Misisipi y Alabama, EE.UU. Los límites de incertidumbre de las salidas del modelo fueron calculados utilizando los métodos de simulación Monte Carlo y el método probabilístico de estimación puntual de Harr. El análisis de la propagación de la incertidumbre paramétrica en simulaciones de caudales con HSPF utilizando 12 parámetros fue realizada con 5000 muestras aleatorias de Monte Carlo y 24 puntos seleccionados de Harr para cada parámetro evaluado. La comparación mostró que el método de Harr podría ser un indicador inicial apropiado de la propagación de la incertidumbre paramétrica en simulaciones de caudales, particularmente en modelos hidrológicos con varios parámetros.
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